The Means for Executing the 9/11 Attack

The Means for Executing the 9/11 Attack
The success of the 9/11/01 attack depended on each of the following five events happening as planned:

Four jetliners were taken over with no effective resistance.

Three of the four jetliners were flown into small targets, with the Pentagon strike involving extreme aerobatic maneuvers.

The air defense network froze for over an hour while the attack unfolded.

The towers self-destructed in a manner never before seen in any structure.

According to the official story, bin Laden got lucky in each case. The hijackers enjoyed phenomenal success in taking over each of the four planes, despite at least one Vietnam-era fighter pilot being among all four of the cockpit crews. The hijackers displayed miraculous skill in flying jetliners into small targets despite the fact than none had ever flown a jet. The Air Force and Air National Guard failed to put up any defense against the jetliners-turned-missiles, despite ample warning times and response options.

The Very Lucky Hijackers
Statistically speaking, the probability of the alleged perpetrators enjoying such a run of luck is vanishingly small. The probability that a mission would succeed can be calculated by estimating the probabilities of achieving each individual task required to fulfill the mission, and then multiplying those probabilities together. (This method of computing probabilities assumes that the individual events are causally independent. Since the success of each task was not strictly independent, the following computation is not statistically rigorous, but is provided only to illustrate a point.)

The following table lists estimates of probabilities for each of several tasks critical to the success of the mission. In all cases we chose much higher probabilities than the facts would warrant, in order to give the official story the benefit of the doubt....

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